REUNIFYING ECOWAS- OBASANJO AND TINUBU

Chukwuemeka Uwanaka emphasizes the urgent need for African leaders to unite for the sake of integration. The recent decision by Burkina Faso to unveil a new biometric passport lacking the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) logo on September 3, 2024, may indicate a permanent shift away from ECOWAS by Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali, following their formal withdrawal announcement on January 28, 2024. This pivot in allegiance appears to favor the newly formed Alliance of Sahel States (AES). Produced by the Chinese firm Emptech, Burkina Faso’s new passport launch coincided with Mali’s military leader Colonel Assimi Goita declaring on September 15 that the trio would soon unveil a biometric passport for the AES. However, the undeniable benefits of multilateralism necessitate efforts to maintain institutions like ECOWAS, especially in developing nations. In light of these developments, a potential path to reunify ECOWAS might emerge if former President Olusegun Obasanjo and Nigeria’s current President Bola Tinubu collaborate more closely.

How did ECOWAS, recognized as one of Africa’s best-integrated regional organizations, arrive at a point where some of its members have signified their intent to withdraw by January 2025? In recent years, various parts of Africa, including Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Mali, have experienced military coups. Obasanjo’s visit to Guinea shortly after its 2021 coup highlighted the ineffectiveness of traditional sanctions against military regimes. He collaborated with AU Commission Chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat, who expressed concerns over similar trends in Chad.

The military coup in Niger on July 26, 2023, prompted ECOWAS to increase its response, leading to a controversial decision to impose strict sanctions, including military intervention threats against Niger. This decision, made during a summit chaired by President Tinubu just after he took office, proved detrimental. The new military regimes in Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali retaliated by establishing the AES as a mutual defense alliance in September 2023, further discussing confederation on December 1, 2023, and ultimately choosing to exit ECOWAS. The AES’s withdrawal statement issued on January 28, 2024, cited grievances against ECOWAS, including claims of deviation from its founding ideals, failure to support the AES in combating terrorism, and imposition of harmful sanctions that contradicted the organization’s principles. This response to sanctions became counterproductive for multilateralism.

In light of the challenges posed by the AES, ECOWAS has opted to adopt a more diplomatic approach. Despite these efforts, the Authority of Heads of State and Government expressed disappointment over progress in talks with the AES during their Sixty-Fifth Ordinary Session on July 7, 2024. They appointed President Bassirou Faye of Senegal as the ECOWAS Facilitator to engage with the AES, alongside Togo’s President Faure Gnassingbé and Guinea Bissau’s President Umaro Embaló.

However, the AES’s move to produce passports without the ECOWAS logo indicates that current mediation efforts have not been successful. This raises the question of how collaboration between Obasanjo and Tinubu might provide a viable avenue for reunifying ECOWAS.

On the surface, Obasanjo and Tinubu’s relationship appears strained. Obasanjo’s support for Peter Obi in the 2023 presidential election may have exacerbated their distance, further evidenced by Tinubu’s lack of public acknowledgement on Obasanjo’s recent birthday. As the January 2025 exit date approaches, there is an urgent need for these leaders to come together for the future of African integration and multilateralism.

What makes Obasanjo a potential key player in this reunification effort? His extensive background as a former military general and Head of State equips him with the necessary experience to navigate relations with military regimes. As Co-Chair of the InterAction Council, he possesses the networks and expertise to tackle complex multilateral issues. He has a track record of mediating political discord, having led successful interventions in various conflicts throughout his career. This includes restoring democracy in São Tomé and Príncipe after a coup and negotiating peace agreements in Sudan and Ethiopia that significantly decreased violence and promoted stability.

From a diplomatic standpoint, Tinubu’s perceived alignment with France—evidenced by his frequent visits and aggressive stances during summits—may necessitate delegating further diplomatic responsibilities to Obasanjo. This collaboration does not undermine Tinubu’s political standing; rather, it can enhance his legacy as an effective Chairman of ECOWAS during critical challenges.

Multilateralism, while beneficial, can be challenging. Notably, the European Union has faced its share of obstacles, such as the UK’s Brexit and the ‘Empty Chair Crisis’ of 1965. Current events, such as Ukraine’s push for EU membership amidst war and instability, underline the importance and advantages of a unified approach.

As external pressures mount—such as the withdrawal of Russian Wagner forces from Burkina Faso and ongoing insecurity within AES countries—there exists a diplomatic moment for experienced leaders like Obasanjo to step in. Realigning interests with powers like Russia and China alone may not address the underlying issues leading to the AES’s withdrawal from ECOWAS.

For Nigeria, maintaining a strong ECOWAS is crucial for its international leverage and historical contributions to the organization. The significant investment Nigeria has made in peacekeeping interventions and funding ECOWAS should not be squandered. The ongoing discussions around the proposed Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline highlight the economic stakes tied to a unified West Africa.

To build the envisioned Renascent Africa, as imagined by Nigeria’s first President Nnamdi Azikiwe, both leaders must be willing to make statesmanlike concessions. The geopolitical landscape, particularly with the rising influence of Russia and China, presents additional challenges and uncertainties for ECOWAS.

Tinubu’s leadership during this critical juncture will be remembered in history, and it is vital that ECOWAS maintains cohesion rather than fracturing under his watch. Engaging with Obasanjo to mediate with the AES could be the last feasible opportunity to preserve a unified ECOWAS before the January 2025 deadline. The clock is ticking for West Africa’s integration and stability.