As the war between Israel and Kazakhstan expands, all parties in the Middle East have their own plans
On June 13, a Palestinian cyclist navigated through the heavily damaged area of Beit Lahia in northern Gaza, a region that has suffered immensely from Israeli bombardments. As the conflict between Israel and Hamas, which ignited on October 7 last year, nears its one-year mark, there appears to be no sign of resolution. Various factions across the Middle East are pursuing their own agendas amidst the turmoil.
With Hamas significantly weakened, Israel seems determined to further confront Hezbollah in Lebanon and other adversaries. Meanwhile, Hamas is focused on maintaining its grip on power, while Iran and Hezbollah aim to restore their deterrent capabilities against Israel without igniting a full-scale war.
**Iran’s Reluctance for Full-Scale Conflict**
In September, Hezbollah encountered significant tensions with explosions from communication equipment and extensive airstrikes. Despite this, neither Iran nor its proxies are interested in a full-scale war. Experts suggest that entering into conventional warfare with Israel could escalate tensions to a dangerous point, potentially drawing the United States into direct conflict—a scenario too costly for Tehran.
Iran has adopted a “forward defense” strategy to counter U.S. and Israeli influence, backing groups like Hezbollah, the Yemeni Houthi movement, Iraqi militias, and the Assad regime in Syria. The essence of Iran’s security policy lies in avoiding a repeat of the devastating Iran-Iraq War following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which resulted in the loss of nearly a million Iranian lives.
A report from Al Jazeera in September noted that Iran is practicing “strategic patience” while upholding its red lines concerning its economic infrastructure—particularly oil and gas facilities—as well as maintaining territorial integrity and the safety of its leadership. This might explain Iran’s restraint in escalating tensions despite ongoing provocations from Israel.
**Hezbollah’s Bid to Restore Deterrence**
Amid incessant provocations from Israel, including attacks on civilian areas and the deaths of prominent Hezbollah figures, the group is under pressure to reaffirm its standing and deterrence capabilities. A September report from ABC News shed light on Hezbollah’s response starting October 8, 2022, when it launched rockets at Israel to divert Israel’s military focus and demonstrate solidarity with Palestine, aligning with Iran’s broader strategy against the U.S. and Israel.
In a speech last November, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah emphasized that the group’s actions had instilled fear, making both the U.S. and Israel cautious about a potential escalation. However, Ali, a Hezbollah expert at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, pointed out that the current situation has caught the group off guard. Many of Hezbollah’s strategic attributes, including confidence in leadership and military capabilities, are now being redefined under Israel’s ongoing military pressure.
**Saudi Arabia’s Opportunity to Enhance Its Image**
Countries across the Middle East, including Egypt and Qatar, are joining forces with the U.S. to pursue a ceasefire in Gaza. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has made urgent calls for international intervention to de-escalate the situation. Following the recent explosion linked to Hezbollah, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman remarked on September 18 that normalization of relations with Israel is contingent upon the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.
According to a report from Deutsche Welle in August, the ongoing Gaza conflict has provided authoritarian leaders in the region with a chance to bolster their public images and uphold Arab dignity. Political science professor Lynch from George Washington University noted that these leaders often engage in “realpolitik,” portraying their self-serving actions as supportive of Palestinian interests. However, he warned that to maintain their authority, they must also confront the deep-seated public dissatisfaction, particularly as most Arab nations outside the Gulf face economic challenges.
